Market Analysis Summary
Dow Jones 15,299 -0.05%
SP500 1,650 -0.25%
NASDAQ 2,994 -0.14%
FSTE 6,696 -2.10%
Base Metals Negative
US Spot Gold CFD 1393
US Spot Silver CFD 2260
Oil WTI CFD 93.00
US Copper CFD 330
US Dollar CFD 83.75
EURUSD 1.2850
AUDUSD 0.9740
DJI CFD 15,325
S&P500 CFD 1650
FTSE 100 CFD 6700
DAX CFD 8471
Shanghai Comp 2275
ASX 200 CFD 5181
Market Analysis Summary
Current Market Rallies Are Corrective In Structure
- The rally in indices and EURO AUDUSD is temporary expect lower levels within two days
Commodities – Precious metals are following stock, this is a sign of fear. Even though Gold can test higher at 1400 expect a swing lower once the USD develops support
Forex – The pullback in the USD creates a move complex Elliott wave four for the Euro, but the Euro’s rally is corrective and further downside is expected because of the corrective nature of the structure
Indices – In Elliott terms the, UK and US indices have created an Elliott impulse wave down from the high, so the current rally should be corrective in three waves retracing 40 - 62% of the move down before seeing further downside in Indices within two trading sessions.
The Australian is weaker than the US as the Australian banks lead the way lower
Stocks – Risk Off - Look to Short rallies
Precious Metals
US Spot Gold CFD 1393
TradingLevels The second retest of supply at 1400 is underway, with the view of failing and creating short trade set up. That said tested support on 1400 creates long trades
Elliott Wave: Wave ii retest of 1400
Strategy: 1390 as tested resistance can be the first set up short, followed by 1380, then 1372, 1365, 1350… taking the initial trade at 1390 failed retest would see the stop above 1400. If we don’t see a tested resistance price action at 1390 and 1380 and we actually get 1400 as support then simply trade long off that 1400 support with stops under 1372. The reason I say this is because silver has more of a bullish pattern, so trade the levels, trade what you see.
US Spot Silver CFD 2260
Technical Analysis: Support on 2300 creates long trades. 2200 as resistance creates short trades.
Oil WTI CFD 93.00
Technical Analysis: The small corrective pattern at (mTL3) 93.00 is Wave iv of C and once completed as tested resistance then expect lower levels 92 – 91.00 and possibility to the mediumlevel (ML9) 90.00 before a three wave bounce, as Brent bounces off 100 (TL1)
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.28-
US Nickel: Last: 6.75-
US Zinc: Last: 0.8247-
US Aluminium Last: 0.8176-
US Copper CFD 330
Intraday – the move down in copper is an impulse wave (five waves) so it’s either and Wave a of an abc bullish corrective pattern and needs to stay above 322. Or the move down is a Wave I of a larger impulse wave. What we can say with confidence is that there will be three swings and this move down is the first of the three.
Forex Trading
US Dollar CFD 83.75
TradingLevels: The market needs to stay above the last low 83.50 to maintain our intraday bullish count and above 83.00 for the bullish count in the next higher degree of structure.
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv) retracement that we assumed as completed here and the Euro and even gold may not be completed. Support on 84.00 is the next step up, you can use that to short the Euro
EURUSD 1.2850
TradingLevels: Intraday – Support on Group1 12930 supports the market, only if and when the pivot within group1 the 12920 as becomes the resistance can weakness be called in. Otherwise expect a move to 12872 and of course support on the midpoint 12950 is the next step after 12930
Elliott Wave: There are actually three intraday wave counts here, I will need to go over these in the video.
Trading Strategies: If 129 becomes the tested resistance, then short adding within Group2 the 12872 as resistance. If you are long above 12872 or 129 support then hold long, once 1250 becomes support lift stops to 12916, while the market is checking for support on 12930 Group1 the stops need to stay under the 1290
AUDUSD 0.9740
TradingLevels: Minorlevel mTL8|0.98 is being retested again as Wave iv)
Elliott Wave: Wave (v) of iii) appear completed and now Wave iv) higher. The Wave iv) 38.2% retracement level is 9885 the other common target is the wave four of one lesser degree the Wave (iv) at 9840. So the first call is 9772 – 9800 as supply and the psychology of price levels. Once this Wave iv) is completed, Wave v) lower towards 95.00 is the ending of the trend lower
Trading Strategies: Elliott traders don’t normally trade wave fours, so if that is the case then wait for the wave four to mature in form before looking for short positions. If you are trading up or down than understand if you’re looking at an impulse wave or corrective wave and then bring in the tradinglevels to work your trade from.
Indices
DJI CFD 15,325
TradingLevels: Minorlevel 15,300 as support or resistance will dictate the next direction. This minorlevel mTl3 is the top of minor group1 so failing here would see the market back below 15,000 the mediumlevel
Elliott Wave: Wave ii rally towards the 50/62% zone 15,350 – 15,400
Trading Strategies: Short the abc rally of wave ii, which would probably look good when the 15,300 becomes the tested resistance, with the view of adding to shorts when 15200 becomes the tested resistance
S&P500 CFD 1650
TradingLevels: The 1650 is a mediumlevel so it’s important as support or resistance, either of these outcomes will take time. But is the basis for the next direction, so ask yourself what is support and what is resistance, when is this so and how will I handle all the elements of the trade
Elliott Wave: There is a impulse wave (five waves) down from the high this will be followed by another five waves after the abc rally which is taking place now. The basic facts are that the five waves down can be the Wave 1 or Wave A but either way we should see three swings.
Trading Strategies: Same - Look to short the bounce off 1650 the abc 5-3-5 structure at 1665 or 1672
If the market fails to develop support on 1650 then look for tested resistance at 1650, 1645 and 1640 to short from. The flipside is being long off the 1650 now.
FTSE 100 CFD 6700
TradingLevels: Intraday - Trade long on tested support of 6700 adding on 6720 and 6730 taking profit at 6750. If support is created on 6750 then trade to 6765 and 6772 and exit and prepare to short using the sublevels lower as tested resistance.
Elliott Wave: Wave ii rally up is underway as an abc corrective zigzag 5-3-5 structure. The 50/61.8% retracement level for Wave ii is SG2 6765|6772|6780 once completed Wave iii down will make new lows towards the Mediumlevel 6500
DAX CFD 8471
TradingLevels: Look to short weakness in the form of retested resistances at tradinglevels such as SG2 8372 or 8350…
Shanghai Comp 2275
Same - Expect a corrective pattern across 2300 then support 2272 then further upside. Trend line support 2250
ASX 200 CFD 5181
TradingLevels: On the cash, the 50 – 62% is 5067 – 5023 as support expect market consolidating in this zone. That said the trend is down and the first high above the level TL5|5000 is moving into place, which opens the door for a larger corrective pattern, led by the AU banks, with the XXJ looking for support around 6200. The question that requires answering on the XXJ or XFJ is the move down going to be in five waves or three waves.
Elliott Wave: Wave iv to 5100 the 38.2% retracement level
Day Trading Strategy: The market is support above SG2 5080|5072|5065 the 5072 is the most important being on the right side of this number is step one. The mTL1|5,100 as support or resistance is the next step of being on the right side of the market
Quote
A Few Trading elements
Meditation – control of thoughts before the day starts
Mind set of disciplined trader – I am a disciplined trader
Trading method - set up signals, entry, stop exit and targets.
Money management plan for trading and business
Set daily work routine
Focus time - no distractions while working
Record keeping and monitoring
Self-examination process
Business plan
Today's Financial Events
Australian Time AEST
8:45am NZD Trade Balance
12:55pm JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
4:00pm EUR GfK German Consumer Climate
EUR German Final GDP q/q
6:00pm EUR German Ifo Business Climate
6:30pm GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals
8:00pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
10:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
11:00pm EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting check the company financial calendar before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while US markets are trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
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