Global Technical Analysis Report
Dow Jones 15,302 -0.69%
SP500 1,648 -0.70%
NASDAQ 2,994 -0.57%
FSTE 6,627 -1.99%
Base Metals Mixed
US Spot Gold CFD 1391
US Spot Silver CFD 2247
Oil WTI CFD 93.00
US Copper CFD 329
US Dollar CFD 83.70
EURUSD 1.2938
AUDUSD 0.9635
DJI CFD 15,300
S&P500 CFD 1647
FTSE 100 CFD 6650
DAX CFD 8357
Shanghai Comp 2324
ASX 200 CFD 4957
Market Analysis Summary
Market Structure Turns Bearish For Indices
- The Elliott abc Wave ii is corrective rally is completed and Wave iii down begins
Commodities – Precious metals positive, base metals negative – trade these directions
Forex – The German Bunds continue lower, so don’t short the Euro.
Indices – Look to short global indices as Wave iii gets underway
Stocks – Your trade sheet should be net short
Commodities Trading
US Spot Gold CFD 1391
TradingLevels: The top of SG2 the 1380 is the support, however the price action above this level appears corrective in nature i.e. over lapping wave structures. If your long above 1380 stay long, if the 1380 fails as support then look to short, with the view of adding if the 1372 becomes the resistance
Elliott Wave: The Wave (iv) Elliott Triangle is in Wave e. The 1390 is roughly the 61.8% of the previous swing so expect resistance and if support is found on 1390 is well deserved.
Trading Strategy: The 1372 as tested resistance for short trades and 1400 as tested support for long trades.
US Spot Silver CFD 2247
Technical Analysis: While the market is above 2200 it’s supported, look for long trades on tested support of 2250. Otherwise it’s lower through 2200…
Oil WTI CFD 93.00
Technical Analysis: Oil and indices are moving together as they mostly do. The wave count for Indices is lower as it is for oil. The 93.00 will offer support and create a corrective pattern as a small wave four before moving lower to the next level 92.00
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.28-
US Nickel: Last: 6.70-
US Zinc: Last: 0.8383+
US Aluminium Last: 0.8230+
US Copper CFD 329
The 330 is being retested as resistance and is expected to fail in line with the Elliott wave count lower. The next step is the 328 as tested resistance followed 325. This move lower will impacted on the material sector and its constituents. E.g. AU BHP in its abc corrective pattern from 35 still unfolding
Forex Trading
US Dollar CFD 83.70
TradingLevels: The top of minor group1 (mTL3) is likely to be retested.
Elliott Wave: It appears that we are going to get a retest of support at 83.00. This means we have to rework the wave count. The Elliott wave count is still bullish, but the current move lower is Wave ii) retracing 50/62% back into 83.00 before moving higher above 85.00.
That said, if the 83.50 holds then the original wave count is correct.
EURUSD 1.2938
TradingLevels: The 1.30 is the line in the sand for this market being bearish or bullish. The market is under the 130, however it has not been rejected, and we could loosely say that the 129 as resistance would create another layer of bearishness. The Bund is still moving lower towards 142, we need to see a rise in the bund to be able to short the Euro and this is not the case as yet.
Elliott Wave: The USD is likely to retest 83.00 for support and in doing so the Euro is likely to test 130 again.
Trading Strategies: 1.30 as support creates long trades and 129 as tested resistance would see the short trade set up at 12872 as tested resistance adding on the retest of 12865 and 12850
AUDUSD 0.9635
TradingLevels: Retest 0.97
Elliott Wave: Wave 4) of (c) of iv) towards 09730
Trading Strategies: Once again support on 09630 the top of microgroup1 should see a move higher to 9650 and if the market is producing an impulse wave higher, the 97+ is the target, but the 9672 should be the safer target
Indices Trading
DJI CFD 15,300
TradingLevels: Once 15,200 the pivot of minor group1 becomes the resistance then expect a move under the 15.000 mediumlevel, but while the 51,200 (mTL2) is the support then the structure of the trend up remains impulsive
Elliott Wave: The Elliott abc corrective pattern as Wave ii is now competed. And Wave iii is underway
CFD Trading Strategies: Use the minorlevels with minor group1 MG1 15,300|15,200|15,100 as retested resistances to short from. While the market is above 15,300 it can retest 15,400 as a smaller wave two, which is the 62% retracement level of the last move down in the last trading session. That said is the 15,272 becomes the resistance then short.
S&P500 CFD 1647
TradingLevels: The Mediumlevel 1650 is developing as the resistance, which in turn is part of the catalyst for further downside in line with the Elliott wave count.
Elliott Wave: The retest back into 1650 as resistance is corrective, if the 1645 becomes the resistance then look to short. The corrective rally back into 1650 may only be the first swing of three swings, so don’t over trade
Trading Strategies: Look for short trade set ups.
FTSE 100 CFD 6650
TradingLevels: Expect a bounce off 6700 and then further downside to 6500 the Mediumlevel (ML65)
Elliott Wave: Wave ii rally is completed and Wave iii lower is under way towards 6500 the mediumlevel
DAX CFD 8357
TradingLevels: 83.50 as resistance puts an end to wave four and would see wave five into 83.00
Shanghai Comp 2324
The five wave structure (impulse wave) up from the low 2161 is nearly completed, so expect a correction lower, an abc Zigzag pattern back below 2300 in due course
ASX 200 CFD 4956
TradingLevels: The rally back into 5000 (TL5) is corrective so expect new lows
Day Trading Strategy: The corrective rally back in 5000 is a continuation pattern and new lows will follow, the tricky bit is that the corrective pattern is a wave four and can expanding in size. The 4950 as tested resistance would add another layer of bearishness. The main point has been to trade short in line with the main intraday trend
Today's Financial Events Australian Time AEST
8:45am NZD Building Consents m/m
11:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m
AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q
3:45pm CHF GDP q/q
4:00pm GBP Nationwide HPI m/m
6:10pm EUR Retail PMI
Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction
10:30pm CAD Current Account
CAD RMPI m/m
CAD IPPI m/m
USD Prelim GDP q/q
USD Unemployment Claims
USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q
12:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m
12:30am USD Natural Gas Storage
1:00am USD Crude Oil Inventories
ASX Reporting & Dividends > CLICK
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting check the company financial calendar before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while US markets are trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
Good Morning & Good Luck!
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